Posts

Finance research on the gap between finding a pattern and keeping it: trading costs, falsification tests, signal libraries, ETF tax structure and framing bias.

Finance research on hidden dependence: risk models that miss a common factor, correlation used as a proxy for outcomes, and exposure travelling through supply chains.

Finance research on what counts as evidence: reading insignificant results, backtest specification choices, the axioms under systematic investing, and access.

Research on grading backtests for robustness, selection bias in econometrics, decaying model performance, and judging an allocation by what a portfolio already holds.

Research on reconstructing a decision: explaining a single trade, delegated judgment and accountability, auditable AI outputs, and a finding that moved with its rule.

New research on checking a method: simulated lifetime effects of AI financial advice, carbon beta as a measured exposure, and skewness under anomaly returns.

New retirement research: pension allocation and insurance as one decision, guarantees inside the tax code, concentrated care costs, and risk that shifts with horizon.

A large AI fund reportedly lost 67% in a month running 4x leverage. Its long and short legs were the same bet — so the leverage landed on gross exposure, not net.

New research on visibility-biased risk data, product labels covering different contracts, and why a good price fit is not a recovered risk distribution.

New research on retail signal families, machine-learning timing models, quantum kernels and accounting anomalies, and what an edge must survive to count.

New finance research on the plumbing behind measured results: momentum from cash mechanics, shifting bond correlations, AI backtest bias, and defaults.

New research on measuring portfolio risk from the inside: risk as internal covariance, rotating diversification, counting real factors, and honest uncertainty.

New finance research on why measured edges fade: trend-following's decline, factor-model gaps, volatility regimes, and evidence that prices still forecast fundamentals.

New finance research on the limits of models: complex forecasts rarely beat simple ones, simulations miss market memory, and trading costs reward patience.

A target-date fund gives every retiree the same glide path. Decumulation needs structure that separates near-term spending from long-term growth. Here's the bucket logic.

Institutions don't manage risk by guessing weights. They measure how assets move together, size by volatility, and budget for the tail. Here's the plain-English version.

New finance research on what actually drives returns: hundreds of factors collapse to a few distinct forces, a global dividend premium, and the fat tails returns carry.

Almost anyone can hand you an ETF allocation. The hard part is holding it through a drawdown. The real product is the understanding that lets you stay invested.

New finance research on why a strong track record flatters: Sharpe-ratio selection bias, unknown expected returns, unrealistic simulated paths, and the behavior gap.

New research on how portfolio risk actually behaves: long memory, switching volatility regimes, correlation-driven diversification, and the measured behavior gap.