Academic-Research
- This week in research: a detectable pattern is not an edge
Finance research on the gap between finding a pattern and keeping it: trading costs, falsification tests, signal libraries, ETF tax structure and framing bias.
- This week in research: the dependence you did not measure
Finance research on hidden dependence: risk models that miss a common factor, correlation used as a proxy for outcomes, and exposure travelling through supply chains.
- This week in research: when the measurement decides the answer
Finance research on what counts as evidence: reading insignificant results, backtest specification choices, the axioms under systematic investing, and access.
- This week in research: how much of a result is search luck?
Research on grading backtests for robustness, selection bias in econometrics, decaying model performance, and judging an allocation by what a portfolio already holds.
- This week in research: whether a decision can be reconstructed
Research on reconstructing a decision: explaining a single trade, delegated judgment and accountability, auditable AI outputs, and a finding that moved with its rule.
- This week in research: what a method was actually checked against
New research on checking a method: simulated lifetime effects of AI financial advice, carbon beta as a measured exposure, and skewness under anomaly returns.
- This week in research: the retirement problem is wider than the portfolio
New retirement research: pension allocation and insurance as one decision, guarantees inside the tax code, concentrated care costs, and risk that shifts with horizon.
- This week in research: the reading is not the reality
New research on visibility-biased risk data, product labels covering different contracts, and why a good price fit is not a recovered risk distribution.
- This week in research: the gap between a prediction and a working rule
New research on retail signal families, machine-learning timing models, quantum kernels and accounting anomalies, and what an edge must survive to count.
- This week in research: the machinery underneath the number
New finance research on the plumbing behind measured results: momentum from cash mechanics, shifting bond correlations, AI backtest bias, and defaults.
- This week in research: why a measured edge is not a durable one
New finance research on why measured edges fade: trend-following's decline, factor-model gaps, volatility regimes, and evidence that prices still forecast fundamentals.
- This week in research: when the model is tidier than the market
New finance research on the limits of models: complex forecasts rarely beat simple ones, simulations miss market memory, and trading costs reward patience.
- This week in research: the false comfort of a strong track record
New finance research on why a strong track record flatters: Sharpe-ratio selection bias, unknown expected returns, unrealistic simulated paths, and the behavior gap.