Diy-Investor
- This week in research: the reading is not the reality
New research on visibility-biased risk data, product labels covering different contracts, and why a good price fit is not a recovered risk distribution.
- This week in research: the gap between a prediction and a working rule
New research on retail signal families, machine-learning timing models, quantum kernels and accounting anomalies, and what an edge must survive to count.
- This week in research: the machinery underneath the number
New finance research on the plumbing behind measured results: momentum from cash mechanics, shifting bond correlations, AI backtest bias, and defaults.
- This week in research: risk lives in the relationships, not the labels
New research on measuring portfolio risk from the inside: risk as internal covariance, rotating diversification, counting real factors, and honest uncertainty.
- This week in research: why a measured edge is not a durable one
New finance research on why measured edges fade: trend-following's decline, factor-model gaps, volatility regimes, and evidence that prices still forecast fundamentals.
- This week in research: when the model is tidier than the market
New finance research on the limits of models: complex forecasts rarely beat simple ones, simulations miss market memory, and trading costs reward patience.
- What a bank Treasury knows about risk that your portfolio doesn't
Institutions don't manage risk by guessing weights. They measure how assets move together, size by volatility, and budget for the tail. Here's the plain-English version.
- This week in research: hundreds of factors, a handful of real bets
New finance research on what actually drives returns: hundreds of factors collapse to a few distinct forces, a global dividend premium, and the fat tails returns carry.
- Why the portfolio is not the product (and confidence is)
Almost anyone can hand you an ETF allocation. The hard part is holding it through a drawdown. The real product is the understanding that lets you stay invested.
- This week in research: the false comfort of a strong track record
New finance research on why a strong track record flatters: Sharpe-ratio selection bias, unknown expected returns, unrealistic simulated paths, and the behavior gap.
- This week in research: why portfolio risk won't sit still
New research on how portfolio risk actually behaves: long memory, switching volatility regimes, correlation-driven diversification, and the measured behavior gap.